Opinion: Six election night predictions to ponder
Who will be the big winners and big losers come Saturday night when election numbers filter through?
We are a day out from election day when the country gets a chance to have its say on the makeup of the next Government. Tribune editor Logan Savory throws out six predictions on what might happen following election day. How many will stick?
Prediction: Penny Simonds to return as Invercargill’s MP
If you cast your mind back three years when shaping a prediction for the Invercargill electorate you’d suggest 2023 will be tight. I’m not sure it will be.
Simmonds claimed the 2020 election by just 224 votes ahead of Labour’s candidate Liz Craig.
But three years is a long time in politics. There was a significant red wave across the 2020 election.
In the Invercargill electorate, 19,252 people cast their party vote to Labour compared to the 11.996 that went to National.
Despite this Simmonds still managed to hold the Invercargill seat, albeit by the narrowest of margins.
There won’t be that same red wave in 2023 and everything points to Simmonds increasing her majority - potentially closer to the 5000-plus majority Sarah Dowie had over Liz Craig at the 2017 election.
Prediction: Liz Craig’s time in Parliament will be up
If the first prediction rings true, and Penny Simmonds retains the job as Invercargill’s MP, Liz Craig will again rely on returning to parliament as a List MP.
Labour’s current polling suggests that won’t happen.
Labour had 65 MPs in Parliament after the 2020 election. With Craig then ranked 41 on the list, she booked a spot in as a list MP.
However, at current polling Labour’s MP numbers would drop by more than 20 and with Craig this time ranked 44 on the list it puts her place in real jeopardy.
It’s a ruthless game is politics.
Prediction: Southland to vote in Joseph Mooney again
There’s a suggestion the National Party could put up a swede as its candidate in the Southland electorate and the public would back it in.
So, my prediction that Mooney will return for a second term in Parliament is hardly a bold one.
Mooney held a 5645 majority in the last election and it’s unlikely that will get threatened.
Prediction: Winston Peters to hit the 7% mark
The fact that much of the campaign in the past week or so has been dominated by Winston Peters is bizarre, unthinkable, but also a victory in political savviness, all in his search for power again.
If you had asked me a few months ago if New Zealand First and Winston Peters would be back in Parliament I’d have suggested that it’s very unlikely.
Now everything is pointing to him holding the cards following Saturday night and is likely to be part of the next Government.
New Zealand First is on track to pick up 7%-plus of the vote.
It appears he’s pulled on the strings in attracting the “anti-establishment” type vote. And it might be the ACT Party which gets stripped of some of those votes.
At one stage, through the current term, ACT was sitting around the 16% mark in the polls with New Zealand First floundering around 2.5%.
That will be a long way off come Saturday night.
Prediction: Green Party to smash 2011 election result
The Green Party’s popularity reached its height in 2011 when it picked up 11% of the vote. Polling suggests that will be tested come Saturday night.
Polling has the Green Party at 14% which would be almost double the vote it picked up at the 2020 election.
While the Greens look set to grow its vote and in turn MP numbers, it is unlikely to get the left bloc across the line.
Many of that increased Green vote will probably come from those who have previously voted Labour. Labour picked up close to 50% of the vote in the 2020 election but is now polling around the 27% mark.
Prediction: Christopher Luxon to become New Zealand’s next Prime Minister
The polling would have to be a mile off the mark for the left bloc to have the numbers to form a Government.
Or there would have to be a significant backflip from New Zealand Zealand First and Labour, in terms of working together to form a Government.
Much of the interest will probably be around how the likely negotiations between National, ACT, and New Zealand First play out in the coming weeks.
Some interesting predictions. With the Green Party vote local man Dave standing for the Southland electorate may well go into parliament on the list.
In a democracy we shouldn't criticize how other people vote but I am having a hard time not doing so with the numbers looking backwards at Winston.
This election should have fallen into Luxons lap with the fallout from Covid and the stress that placed on NZ both socially and economically but he has looked indecisive and more interested in appealing to every voter than looking like a strong leader . John Key took one look at the books and increased GST which is what leadership is about.
Labour has also missed their chance on many fronts and taking a stronger stance on socially equity issues and not doing things like bringing in a capital gains tax is not helping with their traditional base.
I hope they regroup and come back with a new look and some big policies that focus on what Labour once was a about.
My predictions are we wont know who will be the government for 14 days and no one will see the $250 promised in tax cuts by National. Farmers wont see any changes in the many regulations and rules they are struggling with and house prices will continue to rise crippling the economy with debt to the big Australian banks. I will enjoy being proven wrong.